Writings

In February 2003, New York Times Op-Ed columnist Thomas Friedman wrote about "the pottery store rule." Friedman used this rule to remind U.S. President George W. Bush and those that influenced him that an invasion of Iraq would carry with it the responsibility of rebuilding the nation[1]. In this article, "the pottery store rule," hereafter … Continue reading Breaking It Without Buying It: An Imperfect Look at Tendencies, Potentials, and Alternative Timelines →

In reading the 1972 RAND report "Bureaucracy Does Its Thing: Institutional Constraints on U.S.-GVN Performance in Vietnam" by Robert W. Komer, which you can download from my blog by clicking here, I discovered something called the Hamlet Evaluation System which was used by the Civil Operations and Rural Development Support or CORDS program.  You can find the … Continue reading Counterinsurgency Commonalities? →

This article was originally published on Small Wars Journal on January 11, 2019.  Thank you Small Wars Journal for continuing to publish my work! On December 19, 2018, United States President Donald Trump ordered the withdraw of U.S. military personnel from Syria[1].  On December 21, 2018, Trump also ordered the withdraw of approximately half of … Continue reading Phil Walter’s Five Rules for Counterinsurgency from a U.S. Perspective →

On January 1, 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted his dislike for the U.S. providing aid to Pakistan while Pakistan continues to support the Afghan Taliban.  The same day of President Trump's tweet U.S. Army Sergeant First Class Mihail Golin, a Special Forces Soldier who was born in Latvia, was killed in Afghanistan.  Based on … Continue reading Three on Afghanistan →

Word Clouds can be useful for providing a visual representation of a document's content.  Since President Trump released his National Strategy today, I thought it would be of interest to make word clouds of all the national security strategies written thus far.  I used this website to make very basic 800x600 word clouds of each … Continue reading National Security Strategy Word Clouds 1987 to 2022 →

This article was originally published on Blogs of War on November 16, 2017.  Thank you to John Little for publishing my work!  On December 5, 2001, prominent Afghans met under the auspices of the United Nations (UN) in Bonn, Germany.  The purpose of this meeting was to come to an agreement regarding the provisional arrangements in Afghanistan pending the re-establishment of permanent … Continue reading U.S. Objections to the Afghan Taliban: Ends, Ways, or Means? →

This article was originally published by Inkstick Media on October 23, 2017.  Many thanks to Laicie Heeley for the opportunity to publish with Inkstick Media! On May 11, 1966, the 11-member executive committee of India’s ruling congress[1] party called for India to begin work on nuclear weapons to counter the threat of the People’s Republic of China. … Continue reading The Afghan Taliban’s Nuclear Umbrella →

On September 18th, 2001 Public Law 107-40[1] provided then-U.S. President George W. Bush the authority “to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent any future … Continue reading Afghanistan: Two Neglected Discussions →

Russia, China, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and North Korea -- from a U.S. point of view there may be many reasons to worry.  However, letting worry, emotion, or politics rule the day can lead to bad outcomes.  Below is a graphic that I made tonight called National Security Basics By The Numbers. Start at the red … Continue reading National Security Basics By The Numbers →

This article was originally published on Lawfare, by The Lawfare Institute, in cooperation with Brookings, on August 16, 2016.  To view this article on Lawfare click HERE.  I want to publicly thank Susan Hennessey and Quinta Jurecic of Lawfare for their editing of my work.  It is once again a great honor to have my ideas featured on Lawfare. Two broad themes emerge when … Continue reading National Security Adaptations to Below Established Threshold Activities →

On December, 14, 2015 I sent an e-mail to John Little of Blogs of War.  In it, I made a few predictions as to what the situation would be like for the violent extremist organization the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant as of July 31, 2016.  Here is a screen capture of what I sent. … Continue reading A December, 2015 Prediction about the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant in July, 2016 →

This article was originally published on Lawfare, by The Lawfare Institute, in cooperation with Brookings, on July 22, 2016.  To view this article on Lawfare click HERE.  I want to publicly thank Susan Hennessey and Quinta Jurecic of Lawfare for their editing of my work.  It is once again a great honor to have my ideas featured on Lawfare. As the fifteen year anniversary … Continue reading Toward a Common Lexicon of Violent Extremism →

Authors’ Note:  This third part of the "2026: Operation Iranian Freedom" fiction series takes place simultaneously with the first installment and second installment but from a different perspective.  This piece of fiction was written along with Diane Maye and Nate Finney.  It was originally published on The Strategy Bridge on June 10, 2016.  This piece … Continue reading 2026: Operation Iranian Freedom Part 3 →

  Since August 10, 2015 Dr. Diane Maye, Nate Finney, and I have been writing a fictional story of a U.S. invasion of Iran one element at a time, with each part presenting the situation from a different point of view.  We use the 2015 U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, and its possible failure, as a backdrop … Continue reading A Guide to “2026: Operation Iranian Freedom” →

This article was originally published on Lawfare, by The Lawfare Institute, in cooperation with Brookings, on June 3, 2016.  To view this article on Lawfare click HERE.  I want to publicly thank Susan Hennessey of Lawfare for her editing of my work.  It is once again a great honor to have my ideas featured on Lawfare. On May 7, 2016, Colonel Steve Warren, … Continue reading Defeating ISIL Will Strengthen IS →

This article was originally published on Lawfare, by The Lawfare Institute, in cooperation with Brookings, on May 24, 2016.  To view this article on Lawfare click HERE.  I want to publicly thank Susan Hennessey of Lawfare for her editing of my work.  It is once again a great honor to have my ideas featured on Lawfare.   President Obama established U.S. policy towards … Continue reading Combat: Policy, Law, and Reality in the Fight Against ISIL →

This letter home is part of the “2026: Operation Iranian Freedom” series of fiction written by Phil Walter, Dr. Diane Maye, and Nathan Finney and published by The Strategy Bridge.  This letter is written from the vantage point of a soldier serving in the infantry unit described in Part 1, while some other elements of … Continue reading 2026: Operation Iranian Freedom – A Letter Home →

I recently had a déjà vu-like experience and felt as though I was writing something that I had already written.  Feeling concerned, I reviewed my previous work and realized that I was not repeating myself, but instead continuing to convey a theme that I had developed and maintained over time.  As I reflected more, I realized that I had … Continue reading Reading, Writing, and Refining National Security Principles →

This article was originally published on Blogs of War on February 16, 2016.  Thank you to John Little for publishing my work!  Note:  You can listen to a 35 minute podcast discussion of this article here and you can also access it via iTunes. Since the attacks of 9/11 there has been much research and policy work done on … Continue reading Ungoverned Spaces: What threat do they pose? →

Authors’ Note: This second part of the "2026: Operation Iranian Freedom" fiction series takes place simultaneously with the first installment but from a different perspective. This piece of fiction was written along with Diane Maye and Nate Finney. It was originally published on The Strategy Bridge on February 16, 2016.  This piece was also republished … Continue reading 2026: Operation Iranian Freedom Part 2 →

This article was originally published on Real Clear Defense on February 10, 2016.  Thank you to Real Clear Defense for continuing to publish my work! In the United States the 2016 Presidential Election looms and candidates from all sides are taking to the stage at debates and other venues in an effort to establish their foreign … Continue reading What Is an Existential Threat? →

This article was originally published on Blogs of War on December 22, 2015.  Thank you to John Little for publishing my work!  Note:  You can listen to a 35 minute podcast discussion of this article here and you can also access it via iTunes. From the leader of the strongest country imaginable to the head of the local homeowners’ … Continue reading Behavior Change and the Instruments of Power →

As the calls for a major military intervention against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant continue, I took 20 minutes and made this below-average PowerPoint presentation to remind people that this is a battle of ideas. Slide One -- Violent Extremism Headquarters, via the Internet, gains Followers worldwide. Slide Two -- Violent Extremism … Continue reading Violent Extremism: A Battle of Ideas →

Author's Notes: I wrote this piece of fiction along with Diane Maye and Nate Finney.  It was originally published on The Strategy Bridge on August 11, 2015.  It was republished with permission by The National Interest.  As of today's writing it has been viewed 4,500 times on Medium.com.  I don't know how often it has been … Continue reading 2026: Operation Iranian Freedom →

This article was originally published on Real Clear Defense on May 27, 2015.  Thank you to Real Clear Defense for publishing my work! During World War II, Germany, Italy and Japan had definitive links between their respective armed forces, governments and ideologies.  Most believe that the defeat of the German[I], Italian[II], and Japanese[III] armed forces began a chain of … Continue reading Destroy, Defeat or Minimize the Islamic State? →

This article was originally published on The Strategy Bridge on February 8, 2015.  Thank you to The Strategy Bridge for continuing to publish my work! On November 23, 1948, the National Security Council (NSC) approved NSC 20/4 titled “U.S. Objectives with Respect to the [Union of Soviet Socialist Republics] USSR to Counter Soviet Threats to U.S. … Continue reading An Enduring Framework for United States National Security →

This article was originally published at Small Wars Journal on January 18, 2015.  Thank you to Small Wars Journal for finding my content worthy of being published! As a young second lieutenant in the United States Marine Corps, I was taught helicopter operations at the Basic Officer Course and the Infantry Officer Course.  Fifteen years later, … Continue reading Counterinsurgency: Planning Demobilization, Rehabilitation, and Reintegration First →

The last few months have been full of debate over a “new” violent extremist organization in Iraq and Syria. This organization was called the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and at present the Islamic State (IS). Prepared remarks by the Director of the National … Continue reading Behavior Based Foreign Policy →

Over the last few months, the United States has struggled to accurately assess the threat posed by the violent extremist organization in Iraq and Syria known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL). ISIL's actions clearly present a threat to Iraq and Syria. The question that is driving interpretations of authorities to … Continue reading ISIL: A Domestic Threat if Left Unchecked →

The enemy the United States fought in World War II occupied a known physical space, was identifiable, and generally employed conventional military tactics.  At the end of World War II, the enemy forces and their population centers were physically destroyed, which in turn destroyed the enemy's will to fight.  Following the cessation of hostilities the … Continue reading World War II, Foreign Policy, and the Global Effort to Manage Threats →